Solar geoengineering research on the U.S. policy agenda: when might its time come?

Felgenhauer, Tyler, Joshua Horton, and David Keith. “Solar geoengineering research on the U.S. policy agenda: when might its time come?” Environmental Politics (2021): 1–21. Publisher's Version Abstract

felgenhauer_et_al_2021.pdf

Solar geoengineering (SG) may be a helpful tool to reduce harms from climate change, yet further research into its potential benefits and risks must occur prior to any implementation. So far, however, organized research on SG has been absent from the U.S. national policy agenda. We apply the Multiple Streams Approach analytical framework to explain why a U.S. federal SG research program has failed to materialize up to now, and to consider how one might emerge in the future. We argue that establishing a federal program will require the formation of an advocacy coalition within the political arena that is prepared to support such a policy objective. A coalition favoring federal research on SG does not presently exist, yet the potential nucleus of a future political grouping is evident in the handful of ‘pragmatist’ environmental organizations that have expressed conditional support for expanded research.

Solar geoengineering can alleviate climate change pressures on crop yields

Fan, Yuanchao, Jerry Tjiputra, Helene Muri, Danica Lombardozzi, Chang-Eui Park, Shengjun Wu, and David Keith. “Solar geoengineering can alleviate climate change pressures on crop yields.” Nature Food 2, no. 5 (2021): 373-381. Publisher's Version Abstract

fan_et_al_2021_nature_food.pdf

Solar geoengineering (SG) and CO₂ emissions reduction can each alleviate anthropogenic climate change, but their impacts on food security are not yet fully understood. Using an advanced crop model within an Earth system model, we analysed the yield responses of six major crops to three SG technologies (SGs) and emissions reduction when they provide roughly the same reduction in radiative forcing and assume the same land use. We found sharply distinct yield responses to changes in radiation, moisture and CO₂, but comparable significant cooling benefits for crop yields by all four methods. Overall, global yields increase ~10% under the three SGs and decrease 5% under emissions reduction, the latter primarily due to reduced CO₂ fertilization, relative to business as usual by the late twenty-first century. Relative humidity dominates the hydrological effect on yields of rainfed crops, with little contribution from precipitation. The net insolation effect is negligible across all SGs, contrary to previous findings.

Expert judgments on solar geoengineering research priorities and challenges

Irvine, Peter, Elizabeth Burns, Ken Caldeira, Frank Keutsch, Dustin Tingley, and David Keith. “Expert judgments on solar geoengineering research priorities and challenges.” EarthArXiv (2021). Publisher's Version Abstract

irvine-etal-solar-geo-research-priorities-eartharxiv.pdf

Solar geoengineering describes a set of proposals to deliberately alter the earth’s radiative balance to reduce climate risks. We elicit judgements on natural science research priorities for solar geoengineering through a survey and in-person discussion with 72 subject matter experts, including two thirds of all scientists with ≥10 publications on the topic. Experts prioritized Earth system response (33%) and impacts on society and ecosystems (27%) over the human and social dimensions (17%) and developing or improving solar geoengineering methods (15%), with most allocating no effort to weather control or counter-geoengineering. While almost all funding to date has focused on geophysical modeling and social sciences, our experts recommended substantial funding for observations (26%), perturbative field experiments (16%), laboratory research (11%) and engineering for deployment (11%). Of the specific proposals, stratospheric aerosols received the highest average priority (34%) then marine cloud brightening (17%) and cirrus cloud thinning (10%). The views of experts with ≥10 publications were generally consistent with experts with <10 publications, though when asked to choose the radiative forcing for their ideal climate scenario only 40% included solar geoengineering compared to 70% of experts with <10 publications. This suggests that those who have done more solar geoengineering research are less supportive of its use in climate policy. We summarize specific research recommendations and challenges that our experts identified, the most salient of which were fundamental uncertainties around key climate processes, novel challenges related to solar geoengineering as a design problem, and the challenges of public and policymaker engagement.

Elicitation of US and Chinese expert judgments show consistent views on solar geoengineering

Dai, Zhen, Elizabeth Burns, Peter Irvine, Dustin Tingley, Jianhua Xu, and David Keith. “Elicitation of US and Chinese expert judgments show consistent views on solar geoengineering.” Humanities and Social Sciences Communications 8, no. 1 (2021). Publisher's Version Abstract

s41599-020-00694-6_1.pdf

Expert judgments on solar geoengineering (SG) inform policy decisions and influence public opinions. We performed face-to-face interviews using formal expert elicitation methods with 13 US and 13 Chinese climate experts randomly selected from IPCC authors or supplemented by snowball sampling. We compare their judgments on climate change, SG research, governance, and deployment. In contrast to existing literature that often stress factors that might differentiate China from western democracies on SG, we found few significant differences between quantitative judgments of US and Chinese experts. US and Chinese experts differed on topics, such as desired climate scenario and the preferred venue for international regulation of SG, providing some insight into divergent judgments that might shape future negotiations about SG policy. We also gathered closed-form survey results from 19 experts with >10 publications on SG. Both expert groups supported greatly increased research, recommending SG research funding of ~5% on average (10th–90th percentile range was 1–10%) of climate science budgets compared to actual budgets of <0.3% in 2018. Climate experts chose far less SG deployment in future climate policies than did SG experts.

Aerosol Dynamics in the Near Field of the SCoPEx Stratospheric Balloon Experiment

Golja, C. M., L. W. Chew, J. A. Dykema, and D. W. Keith. “Aerosol Dynamics in the Near Field of the SCoPEx Stratospheric Balloon Experiment.” Journal of Geophysical Research (2021). Publisher's Version Abstract

Aerosol dynamics SCoPEx Golja et al.pdf

Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) might alleviate some climate risks associated with accumulating greenhouse gases. Reduction of specific process uncertainties relevant to the distribution of aerosol in a turbulent stratospheric wake is necessary to support informed decisions about aircraft deployment of this technology. To predict aerosol size distributions we apply microphysical parameterizations of nucleation, condensation and coagulation to simulate an aerosol plume generated via injection of calcite powder or sulphate into a stratospheric wake with velocity and turbulence simulated by a three‐dimensional (3D) fluid dynamic calculation. We apply the model to predict the aerosol distribution that would be generated by a propeller wake in the Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment (SCoPEx). We find that injecting 0.1 g s^‐1 calcite aerosol produces a nearly monodisperse plume and that at the same injection rate, condensable sulphate aerosol forms particles with average radii of 0.1 µm at 3 km downstream. We test the sensitivity of plume aerosol composition, size, and optical depth to the mass injection rate and injection location. Aerosol size distribution depends more strongly on injection rate than injection configuration. Comparing plume properties with specifications of a typical photometer, we find that plumes could be detected optically as the payload flies under the plume. These findings test the relevance of in situ sampling of aerosol properties by the SCoPEx outdoor experiment to enable quantitative tests of microphysics in a stratospheric plume. Our findings provide a basis for developing predictive models of SAI using aerosols formed in stratospheric aircraft wakes.

Designing a radiative antidote to CO2

Seeley, Jacob T., Nicholas J. Lutsko, and David W. Keith. “Designing a radiative antidote to CO2.” Geophysical Research Letters (2021). Publisher's Version Abstract

Designing a radiative antidote to CO2

Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) reduces the CO₂‐induced change to the mean global hydrological cycle disproportionately more than it reduces the CO₂‐induced increase in mean surface temperature. Thus if SRM were used to offset all CO₂‐induced mean warming, global‐mean precipitation would be less than in an unperturbed climate. Here we show that the mismatch between the mean hydrological effects of CO₂ and SRM may partly be alleviated by spectrally tuning the SRM intervention (reducing insolation at some wavelengths more than others). By concentrating solar dimming at near‐infrared wavelengths, where H₂O has strong absorption bands, the direct effect of CO₂ on the tropospheric energy budget can be offset, which minimizes perturbations to the mean hydrological cycle. Idealized cloud‐resolving simulations of radiative‐convective equilibrium confirm that spectrally‐tuned SRM can simultaneously maintain mean surface temperature and precipitation at their unperturbed values even as large quantities of CO₂ are added to the atmosphere.

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Geoengineering refers to a set of emerging technologies that could manipulate the environment and partially offset some of the impacts of climate change.

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Frank Keutsch — Heterogeneous Chemistry and Ageing of Designer Aerosol Particles to Assess the Risk of Solar Geoengineering

Robert Stavins — Governance of Solar Geoengineering: Advancing Understanding and Action

Solar geoengineering research on the U.S. policy agenda: when might its time come?

Solar geoengineering can alleviate climate change pressures on crop yields

Expert judgments on solar geoengineering research priorities and challenges

Elicitation of US and Chinese expert judgments show consistent views on solar geoengineering

Aerosol Dynamics in the Near Field of the SCoPEx Stratospheric Balloon Experiment

Designing a radiative antidote to CO2

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